盡管目前有20多個(gè)femtocell部署實(shí)驗(yàn)正在進(jìn)行中,但據(jù)ABI稱(chēng)要真正展開(kāi)對(duì)可以擴(kuò)大蜂窩移動(dòng)通信基站覆蓋范圍的femtocell的廣泛部署則要到2010年之后。到2010年時(shí)femtocell的出貨總量有望能達(dá)到幾千萬(wàn)臺(tái)。

“到2010年,用于femtocell接入點(diǎn)(Access Point)的femtocell芯片解決方案在優(yōu)化后將有可能接近$100這一價(jià)格點(diǎn),且OEM商在收到足夠的訂單后可以通過(guò)量產(chǎn)降低批發(fā)價(jià)格,”ABI Research 調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)副總兼主管Stuart Carlaw在一份聲明中表示,“femtocell市場(chǎng)的轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)在2009年。”

由于看好femtocell的發(fā)展前景,有很多家公司一直在積極地加大對(duì)femtocell的部署。就在不久前,Netgear和Tatara Systems還宣布了一項(xiàng)將Netgear的Femtocell語(yǔ)音網(wǎng)關(guān)與Tartara綜合業(yè)務(wù)相結(jié)合的計(jì)劃。該系統(tǒng)集成了ADSL2+調(diào)制解調(diào)器、路由器、10/100有線LAN轉(zhuǎn)換開(kāi)關(guān)、VoIP技術(shù)和femtocell 3G技術(shù)。此外,還有很多從多方位進(jìn)攻femtocell市場(chǎng)的其它femtocell項(xiàng)目亦在進(jìn)行中 。

Carlaw稱(chēng)鎖定femtocell市場(chǎng)的這些公司應(yīng)該能夠克服技術(shù)上的問(wèn)題,但是他警告開(kāi)發(fā)人員必務(wù)要將其商業(yè)模式和服務(wù)計(jì)劃最優(yōu)化,這樣他們才能超越純粹替代固定通信網(wǎng)的目標(biāo)。

ABI的調(diào)查報(bào)告明確指出,早期femtocell的推廣將采用獨(dú)立產(chǎn)品的形式,而到后期則很可能將femtocell功能嵌入到其它產(chǎn)品中。

翻頁(yè)查看英文原文:

Femtocells off to slow start this year

The major electronics and communications companies working to bring femtocells to market won't have great luck cracking the market this year, reports ABI Research in a report released Monday. The market research firm predicted that just 100,000 femtocell units will be shipped this year.

Noting that more than 20 femtocell development trials are currently under way, ABI said development of the units, which soup up cellular phone coverage, isn't likely to really get wheeling until 2010, when shipments will likely total tens of millions.

"By 2010, femtocell silicon solutions will have been optimized to the degree that $100 price points for femtocell access points will be within reach, and OEMs' order books will have the volume to sustain critical wholesale price reductions," said Stuart Carlaw, ABI Research's VP and research director, in a statement. "The turning point for this market will be late 2009."

Sensing a big market, several companies have been aggressively expanding their development of femtocells. In recent weeks, Netgear and Tatara Systems announced a program to link Netgear's Femtocell Voice Gateway with Tartara's Convergence Service. The system integrates ADSL2+ modems, routers, 10/100 wired LAN switches, VoIP technology, and femtocell 3G technology. Multiple approaches to the market are also under way in several other femtocell projects.

Carlaw said the companies pursuing the market are expected to overcome challenging technical hurdles, but he cautioned developers to fine-tune their business models and service plans so they extend beyond pure fixed-mobile substitution goals.

The research firm expects early femtocell deployments to be dominated by standalone products, while later deployments will likely be carried out with femtocell functionality embedded in multiple products.